Silver also noted that Trump’s commentary on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, in which called Russian President Vladimir Putin “savvy” and called Ukraine a “great piece of land”, has divided Republicans. “So, maybe Biden gets a bit lucky with the levers, and then we’re able to have more normalcy now … that people thought would happen in 2021.” “Fundamentally, Joe Biden promised a return to normalcy,” Silver said. In the event that COVID-19 variant cases continue to decline, which Silver humorously labeled “Wet Hot Post-Omicron Summer,” President Joe Biden could regain some of the support he has lost. But still, at the margin, these things can matter a bit.” “Now it kind of takes like a royal war - you have to literally be an accused pedophile. “It used to be if you had a really bad candidate they might lose the purple to red state,” Silver said. 23Īdditionally, Silver noted that former President Donald Trump’s influence over Republican politicians and candidates has led to a deterioration in “campaign quality” in the GOP. The main reason for Democratic optimism was unexpected redistricting success, Silver said.ĭemocrats gained 12 additional Democratic-leaning seats on a national scale, resulting in five less Republican-leaning seats and “seven fewer highly competitive seats,” according to data published by FiveThirtyEight on Feb. While Silver maintained that a Republican majority in the Senate is the most likely outcome, he adopted a viewpoint he called “hopetivism” during his talk to examine the possible ways in which the Democratic Party could gain an advantage in the Senate.

In fact, the fact that Democrats actually control the Senate now is in some ways fairly lucky.”įiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver (left), in conversation with Associate Professors of Political Science Andra Gillespie (center) and Bernard Fraga (right), in the Emory Student Center on Feb. “That makes it really hard for Democrats to overcome other obstacles. “If you look at the Senate and how it’s weighted, rural voters literally count for about two and a half times as much as people in dense core cities like Atlanta,” Silver said. Out of rural, small town, suburban and urban populations, Silver said that the Senate has a “built-in bias towards small states.”

Silver gave six reasons for his prediction that Republicans would take a majority in the Senate after the 2022 elections: waning presidential popularity, an enthusiasm gap, the effects of “challenging issues” like inflation and COVID-19, the perception of Democratic candidates as “too left,” Democratic retirements and, white and rural voter bias in Senate elections. presidential election using the election forecasting system he created. Silver was named one of Time’s World’s Most Influential People in 2009 after he predicted the outcomes of 49 states in the 2008 U.S. 24 event at Emory University.įounded in 2008, FiveThirtyEight is a website and blog which emphasizes statistical analysis in researching elections, politics and sports statistics. Senate elections and addressed the possible effects the war in Ukraine could have on the midterms at a Feb. FiveThirtyEight founder and data journalist Nate Silver predicted a grim outlook for Democrats in the upcoming U.S.

2022 midterm elections predictions